Who are the best value forwards in FPL for 2026/27?
By Arasi Rex · Updated 15 August 2026 · 7 min read
The assumption that you must own Erling Haaland to compete in FPL is worth challenging. Last season, the 15.5m man delivered 239 points, which is elite. But the question is not whether Haaland scores points. It is whether his cost prevents you from building a squad that scores more total points across 15 starting slots. The data from 2025/26 suggests that the best value in the forward line sits a tier below the premium bracket, and those are the picks that win mini-leagues.
Value in FPL is not just about points per million. It is about points per million above a replacement-level player you could field instead, and the freedom that savings give you elsewhere. A forward who costs 8.0m and scores 181 points is not just a discount. He is a structural advantage if the 7.5m you saved over Haaland buys you an upgrade from a 5.0m midfielder to a 7.5m one.
The case against starting with Haaland
Haaland is the highest-owned player in the game at 74.8% selection. That alone makes him a safe captaincy option and a rank-protector. If he hauls and you do not own him, you lose ground. But the argument for starting without him is not about Haaland himself. It is about the 7.5m gap between his price and the next tier of forwards.
Igor Thiago of Brentford cost 8.0m last season and scored 181 points with 22 goals. That is 22.6 points per million. Haaland at 15.5m for 239 points is 15.4 points per million. The difference of 7.5m in your budget, reinvested across the rest of your squad, can turn a 6.0m defender into a 7.5m one like Gabriel (209 points) or turn a budget midfielder into a Morgan Rogers who scored 169 points at 7.5m.
The risk is real. Haaland's 27 goals and 43 bonus points are league-leading figures. But the data says that a squad built around two 8.0m forwards plus premium midfielders can outscore a squad with Haaland and budget fillers. It depends entirely on where you spend the savings.
The three value forwards who outperformed their price
Three forwards stood out last season as underpriced relative to their output. All three cost 8.0m or less and returned at a rate that matched or exceeded forwards priced 2.0m-3.0m higher.
| Player | Cost | Points | Goals | Assists | Pts per M | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Thiago | 8.0m | 181 | 22 | 1 | 22.6 | 22 |
| Joao Pedro | 7.5m | 177 | 15 | 9 | 23.6 | 30 |
| Ollie Watkins | 8.0m | 167 | 16 | 4 | 20.9 | 26 |
Igor Thiago (8.0m) is the most interesting of the three because his 22 goals came from 20.60 expected goals, which means he finished at roughly the rate you would expect. There is no overperformance to regress. Brentford's system funnels chances through him, and 22 goals from a forward who costs less than 9.0m is rare. His 1.83 expected assists suggest he is not a creator, but that does not matter when he is the finisher.
Joao Pedro (7.5m) is the most owned of the three at 54.2% and for good reason. His 177 points came from 15 goals and 9 assists, plus 30 bonus points. The bonus total is striking for a forward. It suggests he is involved in enough phases of play to earn BPS consistently, which matters under the tweaked bonus system for 2026/27. His 14.91 expected goals and 1.96 expected assists show a well-rounded profile. He takes penalties and plays for a Brighton side that creates chances.
Ollie Watkins (8.0m) scored 167 points but his 26 bonus points show he still carries the BPS appeal he has always had. His 15.40 expected goals against 16 actual goals is tight. The concern is that his 1.18 expected assists is low for a forward who sometimes plays as a creator in Aston Villa's system. If Watkins is the main striker again, 16 goals is a reasonable floor. At 12.5% ownership, he is a genuine differential.
How the new rules change forward value
The 2026/27 season brings two changes that affect forward selection directly.
Defensive Contribution (DefCon) points remain unchanged. For forwards, that means 12 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions, recoveries, and tackles (CBIRT) in a match earns 2 points, capped at 2 per match. Last season, no forward ranked in the top ten DefCon scorers. That is unlikely to change. Forwards who press from the front and make tackles in the attacking third can earn an extra 2 points per match, which over a season is 76 potential points. Most will not reach the threshold consistently, but a forward who does becomes significantly more valuable.
BPS tweaks for 2026/27 reduce overlap with DefCon and improve bonus potential for attacking players. The removal of "save from outside the box" as a BPS metric for goalkeepers does not affect forwards directly, but the new +1 BPS for saving a big chance affects the relative value of finishing against top goalkeepers. The key change for forwards is that the tweaks aim to make bonus points more accessible to attacking midfielders and forwards. If that works, forwards who already earn high bonus totals like Joao Pedro (30) and Watkins (26) could see even more.
How to structure your forward line around value
There are two viable structures for the forward line in 2026/27, and the data supports both.
Structure A: Haaland plus one value forward. This is the conservative approach. Haaland at 15.5m plus a 7.5m-8.0m forward leaves you with one budget slot at 4.5m-5.0m. The total spend is roughly 28.0m-28.5m on three forwards. The risk is that the budget forward does not play or scores very few points. The reward is that you own the highest ceiling player in the game.
Structure B: Three value forwards. Igor Thiago, Joao Pedro, and one other in the 7.0m-8.0m range costs roughly 23.0m-24.0m total. That saves 4.0m-5.0m compared to Structure A. That money can upgrade a 5.5m midfielder to a 7.5m one like Declan Rice (184 points) or upgrade a defender to Virgil van Dijk (175 points). The total points from the three forwards combined might be lower than Haaland plus two budget forwards, but the points from the upgraded midfield and defence should more than compensate.
Last season, the three value forwards listed above scored a combined 525 points. Haaland plus two 4.5m forwards who barely played would have scored roughly 250-270 points from the forward line. The 255-point gap is massive, and it shows why value forwards matter.
Key takeaways
- Igor Thiago at 8.0m scored 22 goals and 181 points, making him the best pure goalscorer under 9.0m in the game.
- Joao Pedro at 7.5m returned 177 points with 30 bonus, the highest bonus total among forwards under 9.0m.
- Ollie Watkins at 8.0m and 12.5% ownership is a genuine differential with a 16-goal floor and 26 bonus points.
- The 7.5m price gap between Haaland and the value tier can fund a premium midfield or defensive upgrade that may outscore Haaland's individual contribution.
- No forward ranked in the top ten DefCon scorers last season, but the 2-point cap per match means even occasional defensive contributions add value.
FAQ
Should I avoid Haaland entirely in 2026/27?
Not necessarily. Haaland is the highest-scoring player in the game and 74.8% of managers own him. If he starts the season with consecutive hauls, not owning him will cost rank. The value-forward approach works best if you have a plan for where to spend the savings and the discipline to hold that structure through early season Haaland hauls.
Which value forward has the best fixtures to start the season?
Fixture data is not included in this analysis, so check the first six gameweeks before committing. Joao Pedro and Igor Thiago both play for sides that create chances consistently, which makes them less fixture-dependent than forwards who rely on counter-attacks.
Is 8.0m too expensive for a forward who is not Haaland?
No. 8.0m for a forward who scored 22 goals is cheap. The market prices forwards based on ceiling and name recognition, not efficiency. Igor Thiago at 8.0m is arguably the most underpriced asset in the game relative to his output.
How do the BPS tweaks affect forward selection?
The BPS changes for 2026/27 aim to improve bonus potential for attacking players. Forwards who already earn high bonus totals like Joao Pedro (30) and Watkins (26) should benefit most. Forwards who score goals but contribute little else may see their bonus totals stay flat.