FPL projections explained: how to pick a winning squad

By Arasi Rex · Updated 14 August 2026 · 8 min read

FPL projections are real‑time points estimates that help you pick a winning squad - note that defensive contribution points are capped at 2 per match. They combine match‑by‑match data with player stats to give you a forecast of the points a player will earn in the next gameweek. When you look at the projection numbers on the FPL app, you’re seeing the latest calculation from the Premier League’s own engine. It pulls in the same metrics that count for real points - goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, and the new defensive contribution framework. DefCon points are awarded when a player performs a defensive act that would earn a real‑world point. Defenders earn 2 points for ten combined clearances, blocks, interceptions, and tackles - a figure known as CBIT. Midfielders and forwards get 2 points for twelve defensive acts, including ball recoveries, called CBIRT. The cap means that a centre‑back who clears twenty balls still earns only 2 points, preventing runaway defense‑heavy squads. Last season, the top DefCon point scorers were Anderson with 52, Senesi with 50, and Tarkowski with 44. There are eight chips in total, split into two sets of four. The first set must be used before the Gameweek 19 deadline on 13:30 GMT Saturday 2 January 2027 and cannot be carried over. The four chips are the Wildcard, Free Hit, Triple Captain, and Bench Boost. BPS has been tuned so that it no longer overlaps with DefCon. Goalkeepers now earn a bonus point for saving a shot from inside the box; the old outside‑box metric has been removed. A new bonus applies for saving a big chance. Projections now appear twenty minutes into each match. Mini‑league standings and overall ranks update live, so you can see how your team stacks against others in real time. The official Price Change Predictor tool lets you anticipate transfer market swings. When you’re looking at a player, compare his total points to his projection. A gap indicates that the engine sees a future improvement or decline. Players whose projections are higher than their current points are often on an upward trend. Take Erling Haaland - he’s scored 27 goals and earned 239 points, with a projection of 25.50 expected goals. His points per game are 6.8, and his projection shows he’s still in form. If you see a drop in his projected points, that could signal a dip in opportunities.

Player	DefCon Points
Anderson	52
Senesi	50
Tarkowski	44
Chip	Description
------	--------------
Wildcard	Reset transfers and free points
Free Hit	Unlimited transfers for one gameweek
Triple Captain	Triple captain points for one gameweek
Bench Boost	All bench players score points
Players like Haaland and B.Fernandes show how projection trends guide your picks. Defenders such as Gabriel demonstrate the value of clean sheets and CBIT.
Teams that manage chip timing well, such as Manchester City or Arsenal, often see a stronger return on investment. Even clubs like Chelsea can benefit from a strategic bench boost during double‑gameweeks.

Transferring with projections

When a player’s projection rises, it often signals a return to form or an upcoming fixture that favours them. If the projection falls, a possible injury or a tough opponent may be behind it. Using the price change predictor alongside projections can reveal where the market is moving before the next transfer window opens.

Chip timing strategies

The Wildcard is best used early in the season, before the first hard set of fixtures, to reset your budget. Free Hit shines during a double‑gameweek or when you need to shuffle a squad in a single match. Triple Captain should be reserved for a player on a favourable pitch, while Bench Boost is ideal when your bench has high‑scoring rotation.

Long‑term planning

Players who maintain a high projection over several gameweeks are likely to be reliable picks for the mid‑season. Balancing a core of projected stars with budget‑friendly options keeps your squad flexible. Monitoring BPS changes can help you spot a hidden gem as the season evolves.

Monitoring BPS changes

BPS now rewards goalkeepers for saving big chances and removes the outside‑box metric. Midfielders and forwards get more points for assists that create a significant chance to score. Adjusting your squad when a player’s BPS rises can give you a modest edge.

Common pitfalls

Relying solely on projections can lead to overlooking real‑world injuries or suspension news. Failing to account for fixture difficulty may inflate a player’s projected points. Underestimating the value of a Bench Boost during a double‑gameweek can cost you the top spot.

Key takeaways

DefCon points are capped at 2 per match, so defence‑heavy squads still need a balanced lineup.
The four chips - Wildcard, Free Hit, Triple Captain, Bench Boost - must be used within their allotted windows.
BPS changes now reward goalkeepers for saving big chances and remove the outside‑box metric.
Projections are updated 20 minutes into a match, allowing you to adjust transfers on the fly.
Using price change predictor alongside projections helps spot market moves before they happen.

FAQ

What are FPL projections used for? They give a forecast of the points a player should earn in the next gameweek, helping you decide on transfers, chip use, and captaincy.
How does the DefCon system affect squad selection? DefCon points reward defensive actions, but are capped, so you still need to balance with regular points and BPS.
When can I use the chips? The first set of four chips must be deployed before the Gameweek 19 deadline on 13:30 GMT Saturday 2 January 2027. The second set is available after that deadline.
What is the Price Change Predictor? It estimates how player prices will shift in the next transfer window based on projected points and market demand.

Using projections for captaincy decisions

Captaincy decisions should lean on projected points rather than past form alone. If a player’s projection is high for a match with a weak opposition, they are a prime candidate. Keep the captain’s budget in mind to avoid over‑spending on a single pick.

Understanding the 20‑minute update window

The 20‑minute update window means you can react to match events before the next transfer deadline. Tracking live projections allows you to fine‑tune your squad in the middle of the week. Regularly reviewing the live standings can reveal hidden opportunities.

Balancing price and projections

A balanced squad covers all positions with players whose projections align with your budget. Mix high‑priced stars with affordable players who have a high projection‑to‑price ratio. Keep a few budget options ready to replace unexpected absences.

Statistical reliability of projections

Statistical reliability depends on the volume of data fed into the engine. Understanding how the engine weights each factor can help you spot when a projection may be over‑optimistic.

Integrating form and fixture data

Form data shows how a player has performed in recent matches, while fixture data shows how hard the upcoming opponents are. Combining both gives a clearer picture of when a player is likely to score. A striker who has scored three in the last four games against midfield‑heavy teams is a good pick for a future fixture.

Maximising bench value

Bench players still earn points from clean sheets and BPS, so a high‑scoring defender can be a safe bench option. Rotating two good defenders each week can help you capture the Bench Boost chip. Make sure the bench backs up the starting XI; a weak bench can cost you valuable points.

Adjusting to injury news

Injury updates can drop a player’s projection instantly. Use the live update feature to see if a player’s projected points fall after a news burst.Replacing an injured player with a cheaper but still projected performer keeps your squad on track.

Using the price change predictor effectively

The tool shows which players are likely to rise or fall in price. Buying a player before his price climbs can give you a long‑term advantage. Conversely, selling a player before a price drop locks in profit.

Monitoring mid‑season rotations

Mid‑season fixtures can force a manager to rotate key players. Projections that remain high for a player who is likely to be rotated may overestimate his output. Watch the manager’s rotation patterns to adjust your squad accordingly.