When do FPL prices change and how to time them this season?
By Arasi Rex · Updated 14 August 2026 · 7 min read
When do FPL prices change and how to time them this season? The real trick to maximizing your FPL haul is to time your transfers and chip usage around the official price change schedule, which is released after each gameweek and can be predicted with the new Price Change Predictor tool. Some users still wait until the last minute, but the data shows that early moves lock in better value.
Understanding the FPL Price Change Cycle
After every gameweek, the Premier League publishes the points and statistics that feed the FPL price algorithm. The system uses the same core metrics that award points - goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, and the newer Defensive Contribution (DefCon) points - to decide whether a player’s price will rise or fall. DefCon points have been unchanged for 2026/27, with defenders earning 2 points for 10 CBIT actions and midfielders or forwards earning 2 points for 12 CBIRT actions, capped at 2 per match. These figures are fed into the price model alongside bonus points, which have been tweaked to reward big‑chance saves and remove the outside‑box save metric.
The price change mechanism is transparent: a player’s price is recalculated after the matchday data have been verified, usually a few hours before the 13:30 GMT deadline. The new Price Change Predictor tool, now official, lets managers see a player’s likely price for the next gameweek based on current form and projected output.
The Role of the Price Change Predictor
The predictor uses the latest points-per-game and expected‑goals figures to forecast whether a player will gain or lose value. For example, Erling Haaland, with a points‑per‑game of 6.8 and an expected‑goals tally of 25.50, is a prime candidate for a price rise. Declan Rice, on the other hand, has a points‑per‑game of 5.1 and an expected‑goals of 3.15, making him a potential price stabiliser.
Because the tool is updated live, managers can adjust their squads before the deadline. The key is to act before the 13:30 GMT cut‑off on Saturdays, ensuring that any transfer you make will be priced at the new values the next day.
Timing Transfers: Before or After the Deadline?
The 2026/27 season allows up to five free transfers to be rolled across the season. Rolling a transfer means that you can keep the free transfer slot for later, but you must still respect the 13:30 GMT deadline. Managers who move a player after the deadline will pay the price change that has already been applied, which can be risky if the player’s value has dropped.
A common mistake is to wait until the last minute to buy a hot‑hand‑on player. The data shows that early transfers, made at the beginning of the week, lock in the lower price if a player is dropping, or secure the higher price if a player is rising. This is especially important for players who are on the cusp of a price change, such as those who have a points‑per‑game of 4.7 and an expected‑assists of 4.79.
Chip Strategy and Price Windows
The 2026/27 season features eight chips - two sets of four, one for each half of the season. The first set must be used before the Gameweek 19 deadline on Saturday 2 January 2027 at 13:30 GMT. The chips are:
| Chip | Description |
|---|---|
| Wildcard | Reset transfers and roll free transfers |
| Free Hit | 7‑day transfer window |
| Triple Captain | Triple the captain’s points |
| Bench Boost | All bench points count |
Because chips are limited and must be deployed at a specific time, managing your squad’s price profile around chip usage is essential. A price spike after a chip can be mitigated by timing your transfers early in the week.
Defensive Contribution and Price Stability
DefCon points are a key factor in price changes for defenders and defensive midfielders. The top DefCon scorers last season were Anderson (52), Senesi (50), and Tarkowski (44). Of the top ten, five were centre‑backs and five were defensive midfielders. No forwards reached the top ten, highlighting the value of defenders who consistently generate CBIT or CBIRT actions.
Because the DefCon formula is capped at 2 points per match, a defender with a high CBIT count - for example, a player who logs 20 CBITs in a match - still receives only 2 points. This cap can keep prices from fluctuating wildly for high‑volume defenders.
Bonus Points Tweaks & Their Impact on Price
The 2026/27 BPS changes aim to reduce overlap with DefCon and raise the bonus potential for goalkeepers, full‑backs, attacking midfielders, and forwards. Goalkeepers now earn +1 BPS for saving a big chance, while the former metric of a save from outside the box has been removed. These changes mean that players who were previously undervalued for their defensive contributions can see a price rise in the next gameweek.
For example, a goalkeeper with a clean sheet and a big‑chance save will now receive a bonus point that could push his price up. Managers should watch the live BPS updates, which now appear 20 minutes into each match, to anticipate price changes.
Practical Examples: Haaland, Rice, and a Mid‑Field Pivot
- Erling Haaland - With 27 goals and 8 assists for a total of 239 points at a cost of £15.5 m, Haaland is a high‑risk, high‑reward pick. His points‑per‑game of 6.8 and expected‑goals of 25.50 suggest a price rise next week.
- Declan Rice - A defensive midfielder for Arsenal with 4 goals and 9 assists for 184 points at £7.5 m. His points‑per‑game of 5.1 and expected‑assists of 7.32 make him a stable pick.
- A mid‑field pivot - A player with 5.1 points‑per‑game and 10 assists will likely see a modest price change. Managers should monitor his CBIRT actions to anticipate any price shift.
Linking to the clubs or players gives managers quick access to deeper stats: for instance, you can read more about the performance of Erling Haaland or the tactical role of Declan Rice at Arsenal.
Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
- Delaying transfers until the deadline - miss out on lock‑in prices.
- Ignoring the price change predictor - lose out on early price rises.
- Misreading chip deadlines - using a chip after the cut‑off can waste the transfer advantage.
- Overlooking BPS changes - missing bonus‑point opportunities can keep a player’s price stagnant.
By checking the predictor every Tuesday and making at least one transfer early in the week, you can keep your squad’s price profile in sync with the algorithm.
Key takeaways
- The FPL price algorithm updates after each gameweek, using points, DefCon, and BPS data.
- The official Price Change Predictor tool lets managers forecast next‑week prices.
- Early transfers before 13:30 GMT lock in the new prices and avoid late‑deadline risk.
- Two sets of four chips must be used before GW19 and the end of the season, respectively.
- DefCon caps ensure price stability for high‑action defenders.
FAQ
What is the deadline for making transfers that will be priced at the next gameweek? Transfers made before 13:30 GMT on Saturday will use the new prices calculated after the matchday data.
Can I use a chip after the gameweek deadline? No, chips must be activated before the deadline for the half‑season they belong to.
How do BPS changes affect price? Players who earn a big‑chance save now receive a bonus point, which can push their price up in the next cycle.
Is the price change predictor reliable? It uses the latest points‑per‑game and expected‑goals data, so it provides a close estimate of the next price.
What happens if a player’s price drops after I transfer? If you transfer after the deadline, you will pay the price that has already been applied, which may be higher or lower depending on the player’s performance.