FPL Gameweek 38-differentials: Target the Top Scorers
By Arasi Rex · Updated 14 August 2026 · 5 min read
FPL Gameweek 38 is the final chapter of the season, and the pressure is on to lock in the right differential choices. The goal is simple: pick the most prolific forward and pair him with a low‑cost defender who has already proven his worth. This combination gives you the best chance of a high‑scoring haul while keeping the budget in check.
Fixtures
The fixtures for Gameweek 38 are straightforward. Arsenal will host Brighton at the Emirates Stadium, while Manchester City faces Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. Other clashes include Chelsea vs. Brentford, Liverpool vs. Bournemouth, and Newcastle vs. Hull. The key matchups for differential picks are the Arsenal-Brighton and Liverpool-Bournemouth games, where squad depth and injury status will heavily influence opportunities.
| Home | Away | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Brighton | Emirates Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brentford | Stamford Bridge |
| Liverpool | Bournemouth | Anfield |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | Stadium of Light |
| Man Utd | Fulham | Old Trafford |
Captain picks (3 ranked)
- Thiago - With 22 goals, 1 assist, and 10 clean sheets in 3282 minutes, Thiago is a proven scorer for Brentford. His points per game of 4.8 and high expected goals (20.60) make him a reliable captain option.
- Semenyo - 17 goals and 6 assists in 3200 minutes give Semenyo a solid 5.5 points per game. His 12 clean sheets and 11.10 expected goals indicate he is a consistent contributor for City.
- Watkins - Though a forward, Watkins has 16 goals, 4 assists, and 9 clean sheets across 2833 minutes. His 4.5 points per game and 15.40 expected goals make him a strong but more affordable alternative.
Players to bring in (4-5)
| Player | Team | Position | Cost | Points | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago | Brentford | FWD | 80 | 181 | 22 goals, 1 assist, 10 clean sheets |
| Semenyo | Man City | MID | 85 | 202 | 17 goals, 6 assists, 12 clean sheets |
| Watkins | Aston Villa | FWD | 80 | 167 | 16 goals, 4 assists, 9 clean sheets |
| Gabriel | Arsenal | DEF | 80 | 209 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 18 clean sheets |
| B.Fernandes | Man Utd | MID | 120 | 235 | 9 goals, 24 assists, 7 clean sheets |
The four main transfers keep the squad balanced. Thiago’s price at 80 points for 22 goals is a bargain, while Semenyo’s 85 offers a midfield anchor with a high chance of points. Watkins provides a cost‑effective forward option, and Gabriel’s defensive solidity is unrivaled in the league. B.Fernandes rounds out the list with a midfield playmaker who can swing a match with assists.
Players to move on (2-3)
| Player | Team | Position | Cost | Points | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garner | Everton | MID | 60 | 159 | 0.70% of the public, 2‑week injury risk |
| Beto | Everton | FWD | 80 | 188 | 1‑week injury, 8 points per game below league average |
| Kelleher | Brentford | GK | 50 | 143 | 5.60% of the public, low clean sheet rate |
These players have either injury doubts or low public support, making them less attractive for a high‑point differential. Removing them frees budget for more reliable options.
The differential
The standout differential for this week is Thiago. Although he is not the top‑scoring forward in the league, his 22 goals are the highest among players priced under 90. His clean sheet record (10) and 4.8 points per game make him a low‑risk, high‑reward pick. In contrast, the top scorer, Erling Haaland, carries a high price tag and a public ownership percentage that could trigger a price hike if he scores heavily. By opting for Thiago, you lock in a forward who can comfortably deliver a 4‑digit points haul without the volatility that comes with the league’s most expensive names.
The defensive differential is Gabriel. With 18 clean sheets and a 6.5 points per game average, he is the most consistent defender in the top 10. His cost of 80 is balanced by the potential for a 4‑point bonus and a clean sheet bonus. While there are cheaper options, Gabriel offers the best return on investment for a defender in the final week.
Key takeaways
- Thiago’s 22 goals outshine many high‑priced forwards, making him the ideal differential.
- Gabriel’s 18 clean sheets provide a solid defensive return at a reasonable price.
- Removing Garner, Beto, and Kelleher frees budget for higher‑point contributors.
- The captain list is dominated by Thiago, Semenyo, and Watkins, giving you a 3‑player rotation that covers all positions.
- The fixture list shows Arsenal-Brighton and Liverpool-Bournemouth as the two most balanced matches for differential picks.
FAQ
What is the best captain for Gameweek 38?
The best captain is Thiago. His 22 goals, 10 clean sheets, and 4.8 points per game give him the highest expected return in the final week.
Which defender gives the best value?
Gabriel is the best value defender. He has 18 clean sheets and a 6.5 points per game average, which translates to a strong return for his 80‑point cost.
Should I keep B.Fernandes in my squad?
Yes, B.Fernandes is a valuable midfield playmaker. His 9 goals, 24 assists, and 7 clean sheets provide a high chance of a 5‑point bonus.
How many points can I expect from Thiago and Gabriel together?
Combining Thiago’s 22 goals and Gabriel’s 18 clean sheets, you can expect around 40 points from the two, plus any bonus points that may arise from their performances.
Are there any injury concerns I should watch for?
Garner, Beto, and Kelleher have injury concerns that could limit their playing time. Keeping them out of your squad reduces the risk of a zero‑point week.