fpl gameweek 38-captain-analysis tips: lock in your legend

Gameweek 38 will decide the title race and the final points for many squads; the most crucial question for managers is which player to appoint as captain. The answer is clear: a player who has already proven a knack for turning big chances into points on the day and is set to face a team with a weak defence. In this guide we break down the fixtures, rank the best captain choices, suggest who to bring in or drop, and identify a differential that could swing the final tally.

The fixtures table

Home	vs	Away	Venue
Arsenal	vs	Brighton	Emirates Stadium
Aston Villa	vs	Spurs	Villa Park
Chelsea	vs	Brentford	Stamford Bridge
Coventry City	vs	Nott'm Forest	Coventry Building Society Arena
Crystal Palace	vs	Leeds	Selhurst Park
Hull City	vs	Newcastle	MKM Stadium
Ipswich Town	vs	Everton	Portman Road
Liverpool	vs	Bournemouth	Anfield
Man Utd	vs	Fulham	Old Trafford
Sunderland	vs	Man City	Stadium of Light

The fixture list shows a clear imbalance: top‑flight teams face bottom‑half sides in the majority of matches. This is where the captaincy decision gains extra weight.

Captain picks

1. Erling Haaland - Man City - 239 points, 27 goals, 8 assists. He is set to face Sunderland, whose defence has conceded 48 goals in 38 games and has a goal‑difference of -6. Haaland’s form is supported by his 27 goals and 8 assists, making him the most reliable source of points.
2. Bruno Borges Fernandes - Man Utd - 235 points, 9 goals, 24 assists. A midfield engine, Fernandes will clash with Fulham, a side that has lost 16 games and conceded 51 goals. His assist tally gives him a high ceiling for bonus points.
3. Gabriel - Arsenal - 209 points, 3 goals, 5 assists, 18 clean sheets. Facing Brighton, who have 46 goals for and 52 against, Gabriel offers a solid defensive return and a chance to pick up clean‑sheet points.

The three ranked picks balance high attack output with defensive solidity, and all are set to play against teams that have struggled to keep clean sheets.

Players to bring in

• Morgan Gibbs‑White - Nott'm Forest - 188 points, 15 goals, 4 assists, 10 clean sheets. He is a budget defender who will face Arsenal, a side that has 71 goals for and 27 against. Gibbs‑White’s contribution to a defensive unit that has kept 10 clean sheets makes him a smart addition.
• Enzo Fernández - Chelsea - 157 points, 10 goals, 5 assists. He will oppose Liverpool, a team that has conceded 53 goals. Enzo’s 10 goals and 5 assists provide a good risk‑reward balance.
• Benjamin Sesko - Man Utd - 154 points, 11 goals, 1 assist. Sesko will play against Fulham, who have 51 goals against. His goal output and the attacking depth of Man Utd give him a high upside.
• Jérémy Doku - Man City - 120 points, 5 goals, 8 assists. Doku will face Liverpool, a side that has conceded 54 goals. His 8 assists raise the potential for bonus points.
• Rayan Cherki - Man City - 135 points, 4 goals, 13 assists. He will go up against Bournemouth, who have 54 goals for and 54 against. Cherki’s 13 assists are a strong indicator of his influence.

These players offer either a cost advantage or a high points ceiling against teams that are struggling.

Players to move on

• Richarlison - Spurs - 119 points, 11 goals, 4 assists. He will face Liverpool, a side that has 63 goals for and 53 against. His cost of 6.0m and the defensive weakness of Liverpool make him a risky pick.
• Xavi Simons - Spurs - 124 points, 2 goals, 5 assists. He will also play Liverpool. His low ownership and the defensive frailty of the opposition reduce his value.
• Kole Kelleher - Brentford - 143 points, 0 goals, 0 assists. He will face Chelsea, a team that has 77 goals for and 35 against. With a high cost and a defensive disadvantage, he offers limited upside.

Dropping these players frees up budget for higher‑yield options.

The differential

Rayan Cherki - Man City - 135 points, 4 goals, 13 assists. With only a 9.3% ownership and an assist tally that tops the league, Cherki is a differential that can swing the game. He will face Bournemouth, a side that has a goal‑difference of 0, meaning his assists are likely to be decisive.

Cherki’s low cost of 7.5m and the fact that he is set to play a team that has struggled defensively make him a risky but potentially high‑reward pick.

Key takeaways

• The top captain choice is Erling Haaland against Sunderland, offering the highest expected points.
• Budget defenders Morgan Gibbs‑White and Enzo Fernández are strong options against Arsenal and Liverpool respectively.
• Dropping Richarlison and Xavi Simons re‑allocates budget to higher‑return players.
• The differential Rayan Cherki can provide an extra 4-5 points if he delivers on his assist potential.

FAQ

Which player should I pick as captain for Gameweek 38? Erling Haaland is the clear choice; his 27 goals and 8 assists in the current season give him the highest probability of delivering a high‑scoring game.

Are there any budget‑friendly captain options? Bruno Borges Fernandes and Gabriel are both solid choices, offering a mix of attack and defense while keeping the budget in check.

Should I drop any high‑cost midfielders? Richarlison and Xavi Simons have low return relative to their cost and face defensively weak opposition, so moving them to the bench can improve overall squad value.

What is the best differential pick for this week? Rayan Cherki stands out due to his low ownership and high assist record; he is a low‑budget differential that can add significant points.