FPL Gameweek 31-captain-analysis: Who to captain today?
By Arasi Rex · Updated 14 August 2026 · 5 min read
The fixtures table
| # | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth | Man City |
| 2 | Chelsea | Fulham |
| 3 | Coventry City | Arsenal |
| 4 | Crystal Palace | Everton |
| 5 | Leeds | Nott'm Forest |
| 6 | Liverpool | Newcastle |
| 7 | Man Utd | Hull City |
| 8 | Spurs | Brentford |
| 9 | Sunderland | Ipswich Town |
| 10 | Aston Villa | Brighton |
The schedule packs a mix of top‑tier clashes and mid‑table battles. The first two fixtures involve a Premier League heavyweight and a club that is fighting for safety, giving plenty of upside for a high‑scoring captain. The remaining games are more evenly balanced, making them useful for differential picks.
Captain picks
- Haaland - Man City
- Semenyo - Man City
- Gibbs‑White - Nott'm Forest
1. Haaland - 6.8 points per game
Haaland has 27 goals and 13 clean sheets in 2953 minutes. His points per game of 6.8 sits above the league average for forwards and the top five in the entire table. When Man City opens the season against a Bournemouth side that has 4 goals for and 54 goals against, the probability of a goal‑scoring outing is high. The forward’s expected goals of 25.50 also suggest he is still in peak form.
2. Semenyo - 5.5 points per game
Semenyo’s 202 points and 17 goals in 3200 minutes give him a points per game of 5.5. He is a consistent source of assists (6) and plays a vital role in Man City’s creative build‑up. His clean sheets tally of 12 shows he is a reliable selection when the defense is solid.
3. Gibbs‑White - 5.1 points per game
Gibbs‑White is a less obvious choice but offers a high risk‑reward profile. With 15 goals and 4 assists in 3101 minutes, his 5.1 points per game are backed by a clean sheet return of 10. The Nott'm Forest fixtures against Leeds and Liverpool provide a chance for a clean sheet and a goal from Gibbs‑White.
Players to bring in
| Player | Team | Position | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Fernandes | Man Utd | MID | 6.7 |
| M. Mbeumo | Man Utd | MID | 4.5 |
| R. Sarr | Crystal Palace | MID | 4.2 |
| B. G. | Newcastle | MID | 5.3 |
| Saka | Arsenal | MID | 5.1 |
B. Fernandes is the highest‑scoring midfielder in the league with 9 goals and 24 assists. His 6.7 points per game make him a solid core addition. M. Mbeumo’s 11 goals and 3 assists support a mid‑price option for a strong midfield presence. R. Sarr’s 9 goals and 2 assists give the Crystal Palace squad an extra edge. B. G. has 9 goals and 7 assists, backing him with a 5.3 points per game average. Saka’s 7 goals and 10 assists are a dependable source of points.
Players to move on
| Player | Team | Position | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doku | Man City | MID | 4.0 |
| Richarlison | Spurs | FWD | 3.7 |
| N. Williams | Nott'm Forest | DEF | 3.5 |
Doku has struggled to find form, with only 5 points per game and a low assist tally. Richarlison’s 11 goals and 4 assists are not matching his 3.7 points per game output, making him a candidate for replacement. N. Williams, while a solid defender, has a points per game of 3.5 and is facing a tough set of defensive fixtures.
The differential
The differential pick for this week is Gibbs‑White. The player’s points per game of 5.1 is below the league average for forwards, but the combination of a high goal return and a defensive side that has managed 10 clean sheets in 3101 minutes offers a unique upside. Gibbs‑White’s expected goals of 10.81 and expected assists of 2.91 suggest that he can contribute both with the ball in the box and from set pieces. Nott'm Forest faces Leeds, who have a low goal‑scoring record, and Liverpool, where the defensive lineup is expected to be tight.
Differential comparison table
| Player | Team | Points per game | Expected goals | Expected assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibbs‑White | Nott'm Forest | 5.1 | 10.81 | 2.91 |
| Haaland | Man City | 6.8 | 25.50 | 2.67 |
| Semenyo | Man City | 5.5 | 11.10 | 3.12 |
The table shows that Gibbs‑White’s expected goal contribution is lower than Haaland’s but still higher than most other forwards. The defensive solidity of Nott'm Forest gives him a chance to pick up clean sheet points.
Key takeaways
- Haaland’s 6.8 points per game and 13 clean sheets make him the top captain pick.
- Semenyo offers a balanced 5.5 points per game with 12 clean sheets.
- Gibbs‑White is a high‑risk differential with 5.1 points per game and a strong defensive backdrop.
- B. Fernandes (6.7 points per game) and M. Mbeumo (4.5 points per game) are the best midfield options to add.
- Doku (4.0 points per game) and Richarlison (3.7 points per game) are recommended for bench rotation.
FAQ
How many points can I expect from Haaland as captain? Haaland averages 6.8 points per game, so a typical captaincy would deliver around 13.6 points if he scores a goal.
What is the upside of Gibbs‑White as a differential? His expected goal output of 10.81 and a clean sheet likelihood of 10 out of 3101 minutes suggest he can net 1-2 goals while also gaining 4-5 defensive points.
Which midfielder has the best assist record? B. Fernandes leads with 24 assists, giving him a consistent source of bonus points.
Is there a risk in picking Haaland? The main risk is injury; however, the current season shows a low injury rate for him.
Can I use Saka as a captain? Saka’s 5.1 points per game and 10 assists make him a mid‑value option, but he is a bit less reliable than Haaland or Semenyo.