FPL Gameweek 10-captain-analysis: Haaland or the Arsenal triple-up
By Arasi Rex · Updated 15 August 2026 · 7 min read
Gameweek 10 has a fixture list that looks forgiving on paper but carries a few traps for the casual captain pick. The headline fixture is Arsenal at home to Hull City, which has most managers reaching for a red-shirted armband. But Erling Haaland, owned by 74.8% of the game, travels to Nottingham Forest, a side that finished 16th last season with 44 points. The smart money is on the Arsenal attack, but the data says the gap between the two options is narrower than you think.
The fixtures table
| Home | Away | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Hull City | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton | Brentford | Amex Stadium |
| Everton | Coventry City | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| Fulham | Newcastle | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Bournemouth | Portman Road |
| Leeds | Spurs | Elland Road |
| Man Utd | Aston Villa | Old Trafford |
| Nott'm Forest | Man City | City Ground |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | Stadium of Light |
| Crystal Palace | Liverpool | Selhurst Park |
Arsenal versus Hull City is the standout fixture for attacking returns. The Gunners finished top of the table last season with 85 points and a goal difference of +44. Hull City were not in the Premier League last season. That mismatch is the foundation of the week's captaincy debate.
Captain picks (3 ranked)
1. Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) vs Hull City
The Swedish striker scored 14 goals last season from 36 appearances, averaging a goal every 161 minutes. He is priced at 75 and owned by 13.1% of managers. Hull City were a Championship side last season and arrive at the Emirates as heavy underdogs. Gyokeres has the fixture, the form, and the price point that allows you to stack other premiums. He is the week's best captaincy bet because he combines a guaranteed start with a defence that conceded 68 goals last season (Wolves, 20th) or worse. The 14 goals came from an expected goals total of 12.26, suggesting he slightly outperformed but not unsustainably so. At home, against a side that has no Premier League data in this dataset, he is the play.
2. Erling Haaland (Man City) vs Nott'm Forest
Haaland scored 27 goals last season, the highest in the league. He is owned by 74.8% of managers, which means if he hauls and you do not captain him, you lose ground. But Nottingham Forest at home are not a pushover. They finished 16th with 44 points but kept 9 clean sheets and conceded only 51 goals, better than five other teams above them. Haaland's expected goals of 25.50 were the highest in the league, and his 43 bonus points show he is the focal point of City's attack. The risk is that City's away form last season was not as dominant as their home form, and Forest have a disciplined defence under Nuno. Haaland is the safe pick, but the ceiling might be lower than Gyokeres this week.
3. Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) vs Hull City
Saka scored 7 goals and added 10 assists last season, with an expected goals of 7.57 and expected assists of 7.16. He is priced at 95 and owned by only 10.6% of managers, making him a genuine differential captain. The concern is his minutes: 2218 from 31 appearances suggests he was rotated or injured at times. But when he plays, he is on set pieces and penalties. Against Hull City, Saka could easily return a goal and two assists. The 7 goals from 7.57 xG shows he is roughly where expected, and the 10 assists from 7.16 xA suggests he overperformed slightly. The fixture is the best on paper, and Saka is the most creative player in that Arsenal side.
Players to bring in (4-5)
Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - Already covered above. 75, 14 goals, Hull City at home. Bring him in if you do not have him.
Declan Rice (Arsenal) - Priced at 75, owned by 22.4%. Rice scored 4 goals and added 9 assists last season, with 18 clean sheets. He is a midfield enabler who also provides defensive returns. Against Hull City, he could easily get an assist and a clean sheet. The 9 assists from 7.32 xA suggests he overperformed, but he is still a reliable source of points.
Joao Pedro (Chelsea) - The Brazilian scored 15 goals and added 9 assists last season, with an expected goals of 14.91. He is priced at 75 and owned by 54.2% of managers, so he is not a differential. But Chelsea travel to Sunderland, who finished 7th with 54 points and kept 10 clean sheets. The fixture is not as easy as it looks. Still, Pedro is in form and on penalties.
Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) - Priced at 75, owned by 29.9%. Rogers scored 10 goals and added 8 assists last season, with an expected goals of 6.84 and expected assists of 4.32. He outperformed his xG by a significant margin, which is a red flag for regression, but the fixture against Sunderland is still favourable. He is a budget midfield option who has delivered.
Elliot Anderson (Man City) - Priced at 65, owned by 12%. Anderson scored 4 goals and added 5 assists last season, with an expected goals of 2.94 and expected assists of 4.79. He is a cheap City midfield option who plays regularly. The fixture against Forest is not a walkover, but City's attack is always a threat.
Players to move on (2-3)
Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) - Priced at 70, owned by 47%. Szoboszlai scored 6 goals and added 7 assists last season, with an expected goals of 4.76 and expected assists of 6.83. He is a solid midfielder, but Liverpool travel to Crystal Palace, who finished 15th but kept 12 clean sheets and have a stubborn defence. Palace at Selhurst Park is never easy. Szoboszlai has not shown the ceiling to justify the 70 price tag when cheaper options like Anderson or Rogers are available.
Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) - Priced at 120, owned by 48.7%. Fernandes scored 9 goals and added 24 assists last season, with an expected goals of 10.79 and expected assists of 12.28. The 24 assists from 12.28 xA is a massive overperformance that is unlikely to repeat. Man Utd host Aston Villa, who finished 4th with 65 points and kept 9 clean sheets. Villa are a strong side, and Fernandes at 120 is too expensive for a captaincy option this week.
Igor Thiago (Brentford) - Priced at 80, owned by 16%. Thiago scored 22 goals last season, the second-highest in the league, but his only assist came from an expected assists of 1.83. He is a one-dimensional striker who relies entirely on goals. Brentford travel to Brighton, who finished 8th with 53 points and kept 10 clean sheets. The fixture is not favourable, and Thiago's lack of assists limits his ceiling.
The differential
Harry Wilson (Leeds) - Priced at 65, owned by 8.5%. Wilson scored 10 goals and added 9 assists last season, with an expected goals of 5.88 and expected assists of 4.77. He overperformed his xG by a significant margin, but he is still a budget midfielder who plays for a Leeds side that finished 14th with 47 points. Leeds host Spurs, who finished 17th with 41 points and kept only 11 clean sheets. Spurs are a mess defensively. Wilson could easily return a goal and an assist. At 65, he is a value pick who allows you to spend elsewhere. The 9 assists from 4.77 xA is a red flag, but the fixture is good enough to take the risk.
Key takeaways
- Viktor Gyokeres is the best captaincy option for Gameweek 10: 14 goals, Hull City at home, 75 price.
- Erling Haaland is the safe pick owned by 74.8% of managers, but Nottingham Forest away is not a guaranteed haul.
- Bukayo Saka is a differential captain at 10.6% ownership, with 7 goals and 10 assists last season.
- Harry Wilson at 65 is the week's best value differential, hosting a Spurs side that conceded 57 goals.
- Avoid Bruno Fernandes at 120: his 24 assists from 12.28 xA is unsustainable, and Aston Villa away is tough.
FAQ
Who is the best captain for FPL Gameweek 10? Viktor Gyokeres. Arsenal host Hull City, who were not in the Premier League last season. Gyokeres scored 14 goals and is priced at 75.
Should I captain Haaland in Gameweek 10? Haaland is the safe pick, but Nottingham Forest away is not a guaranteed haul. Forest kept 9 clean sheets last season and conceded only 51 goals.
Is Bukayo Saka a good differential captain? Yes. Saka is owned by only 10.6% of managers and has 7 goals and 10 assists. Hull City at home is the best fixture of the week.
Who should I transfer in for Gameweek 10? Viktor Gyokeres, Declan Rice, and Harry Wilson are the top targets. Gyokeres for the fixture, Rice for security, Wilson for value.