FPL forwards explained: how to pick the best strikers

Picking the right forwards in FPL is the difference between a top 10k finish and a mid-table slog. The data from last season tells a clear story: the best forwards are not just the ones who score the most goals. They are the ones who combine high goal output with bonus points, minutes security, and cost efficiency. If you are chasing overall rank, you need to look beyond the obvious.

The top-tier option: Haaland

Erling Haaland finished as the highest-scoring player in FPL last season with 239 points. He scored 27 goals from 25.5 expected goals, added 8 assists, and banked 43 bonus points. His points per game of 6.8 is the best among all forwards. But he costs 155 -- that is 15.5m -- and is owned by 74.8% of managers. You are not gaining ground by owning him; you are avoiding losing it. The question is whether that 15.5m is better spent elsewhere.

Haaland's 239 points represent 1.54 points per million cost. That is solid but not elite. He played 2,953 minutes, missing some games. If you captain him every week, you are betting on a reliable floor. The 43 bonus points show he also benefits from the bonus points system (BPS). The 2026/27 BPS tweaks are designed to improve bonus potential for forwards, so Haaland could remain a bonus magnet.

The value picks: Thiago and Joao Pedro

Igor Thiago (Brentford) and Joao Pedro (Brighton) are the two forwards who offer the best value in the game. Both cost 80 or less and delivered over 175 points.

Thiago scored 22 goals from 20.6 xG, with only 1 assist, accumulating 181 points at a cost of 80. That is 2.26 points per million. He played 3,282 minutes, more than any other forward in the data. His 22 bonus points are decent but not elite. The lack of assists limits his ceiling, but the goal output is reliable. At 16% ownership, he is a differential that can push you up the rankings.

Joao Pedro is the most popular value forward at 54.2% ownership. He cost 75 and scored 177 points, with 15 goals and 9 assists. His 30 bonus points show he is involved in all phases of attacking play. His points per million is 2.36, the best of any forward. The only concern is minutes: he played 2,658 minutes, less than Thiago. But his assist rate lifts his floor in games where he does not score.

The case for Watkins

Ollie Watkins at Aston Villa is often overlooked because his 167 points (16 goals, 4 assists) are lower than the others. But he cost 80 and scored 4.5 points per game. His 26 bonus points are healthy. The issue is that his 2025/26 season was a step down from previous years. He still outperformed his xG (15.4 to 16 goals). At 12.5% ownership, he is a genuine differential. If Villa improve their attacking output, Watkins could be a steal. But the data says he is the weakest of the four forwards here in terms of total points and value per million (2.09).

How the 2026/27 rules affect forwards

The new Defensive Contribution (DefCon) points do not apply to forwards. Last season, the top ten DefCon scorers were all defenders or defensive midfielders. That means forwards are not losing out on points from defensive actions. The BPS changes for 2026/27 are more relevant. The removal of the "save from outside the box" metric for goalkeepers and the addition of +1 BPS for saving a big chance are goalkeeper-specific. But the overall BPS system has been tweaked to reduce overlap with DefCon and improve bonus potential for attacking midfielders and forwards. That should help forwards earn bonus points more consistently, especially those who create chances or take shots.

Chips also matter. There are eight chips in total, split into two sets of four. The first set must be used before the Gameweek 19 deadline (13:30 GMT Saturday 2 January 2027). This affects forward selection because you might want to use Triple Captain or Bench Boost on a forward-heavy gameweek. The ability to roll up to five free transfers also gives you flexibility to switch between forwards.

Key takeaways

• Haaland is the highest-scoring forward (239 points) but costs 155 and is owned by 74.8% of managers. He is essential for rank protection, not rank gain.
• Joao Pedro offers the best value per million (2.36 points per cost) with 177 points at 75. His 9 assists and 30 bonus points make him a well-rounded pick.
• Igor Thiago is the best budget pure goalscorer: 22 goals, 181 points at 80 cost, with 3,282 minutes played. He is a strong differential at 16% ownership.
• Watkins is a third-tier option: 167 points, 16 goals, but lower value (2.09) and ownership (12.5%). He is a gamble on Aston Villa's attack.
• The 2026/27 BPS tweaks favour forwards, and the chip structure gives you strategic flexibility. Focus on forwards who combine goal threat with bonus potential.

FAQ

Which FPL forward should I pick first? Haaland is the safest captaincy option and the highest scorer. If you can afford him, start with him. If you need to free up funds, Joao Pedro is the best alternative.

Is Haaland worth the price? At 15.5m, he is expensive but delivers 239 points. You pay a premium for the captaincy security. The data shows that Joao Pedro and Thiago offer better value per million, but they lack Haaland's ceiling.

Are there any budget forwards under 70? The data only includes four forwards. The cheapest forward in the set is Joao Pedro at 75. There are no forwards under 70 in the provided data. You may need to look at midfielders classified as forwards in the game, but the source data does not include them.

How do the new BPS changes affect forward selection? The BPS tweaks aim to improve bonus potential for forwards. That means forwards who create chances or take shots could earn more bonus points. Joao Pedro (30 bonus) and Haaland (43) already benefit. The changes could make them even more valuable.

For more player analysis, check out our profiles on Haaland, Joao Pedro, and Watkins. For team strategy, see our guide on FPL midfielders.