FPL Expected Points Guide: How to Maximise Fantasy Gains

This guide explains how to calculate expected points and use them to build a winning FPL squad. DefCon points are capped at 2 per match.

Expected points are the theoretical value a player should earn based on statistical probabilities, rather than the raw totals you see on the leaderboard. They give a clearer picture of a player’s future contribution, smoothing out the noise of a single high‑scoring game or a bad week.

To compute a player’s expected points you add the weighted contributions of each possible outcome: goals, assists, clean sheets, saves for goalkeepers, and the newer BPS bonuses that are now calculated from live match data. The Premier League’s 2026/27 update keeps the basic structure but adds a few tweaks that make the numbers more reliable.

How the Formula Works

• Goals: Each goal is worth 4 points. The probability of a goal is derived from the player’s historical expected goals (xG) divided by the number of matches played. Multiply that probability by 4.
• Assists: Each assist is worth 3 points. The expected assist (xA) figure is used similarly.
• Clean Sheets: Defenders and goalkeepers earn 4 points for a clean sheet. The probability of a clean sheet is based on the team’s defensive statistics and the player’s defensive contribution (DefCon).
• Bonus Points: The new BPS system awards bonus points when a player is in the top 10 for a particular statistic. The live projected bonus points feature shows a player’s current probability of earning a bonus.
• Saving a Shot: Goalkeepers receive a +1 BPS for saving a shot from inside the box, and a new +1 for saving a big chance.

All of these components are summed to give a single expected points figure. The result is a number that can be compared across players, regardless of position.

2026/27 Rule Changes That Matter

The Premier League confirmed that Defensive Contribution (DefCon) points remain unchanged for the 2026/27 season. Defenders still earn 2 points for 10 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles (CBIT), and midfielders or forwards earn 2 points for 12 defensive actions (CBIRT). The cap of 2 points per match means a centre‑back with 20 CBIT still scores only 2, not 4.

BPS was tweaked to reduce overlap with DefCon and to improve bonus potential for goalkeepers, full‑backs, attacking midfielders and forwards. The “save from outside the box” metric was removed, and a new +1 BPS applies for saving a big chance.

The chip set has been doubled this season: eight chips in total, split into two sets of four. The first set must be used before the Gameweek 19 deadline (13:30 GMT Saturday 2 January 2027), and it cannot be carried over. Players can roll up to five free transfers per season.

Value Analysis: A Quick Look at the Top Five

Below is a snapshot of the five players who currently lead the league in expected points per cost. These figures combine the latest season data with each player’s price.

Player	Position	Expected Points	Cost (£m)	Expected / Cost
Erling Haaland	FWD	25.50	15.5	1.65
Bruno Borges Fernandes	MID	10.79	12.0	0.90
Antoine Semenyo	MID	11.10	8.5	1.31
Morgan Gibbs‑White	MID	10.81	8.0	1.35
Declan Rice	MID	3.15	7.5	0.42

The table highlights how a high‑scoring striker like Haaland delivers the best return on investment, while midfielders with a mix of goal‑scoring and passing influence can also offer solid value.

Choosing a Bench: Why Clean Sheets Matter

A well‑packed bench can swing a Gameweek, especially when the live projected bonus points feature is in play. Players such as David Raya benefit from a high clean‑sheet probability and a stable price. Their BPS now rewards a save from inside the box and a big chance, which can boost their projected points during a defensive stretch.

When selecting bench options, look for:

• Consistent clean‑sheet chances.
• Players whose BPS has a high probability of being awarded.
• Those whose price is low enough to free up transfers.

Transfer Strategy: Make Every Move Count

With up to five free transfers, the goal is to keep your squad flexible while protecting your core.

• Stagger transfers: Move one or two players per Gameweek to avoid a transfer penalty.
• Target price drops: Players who have fallen in price can be added without penalty, freeing up budget for higher‑priced stars.
• Use a chip strategically: A Triple Captain chip can double the impact of a high‑expected‑points player like Haaland, but it should be reserved for a Gameweek with a favourable fixture.

Live Features: Making the Most of Real‑Time Data

The new live projected bonus points appear 20 minutes into each match, allowing you to gauge a player’s current bonus potential. The mini‑league standings update live, so you can see where you stand relative to the competition at any time.

The Price Change Predictor tool lets you forecast a player’s price movement based on recent performance and market sentiment. This can help you decide whether to hold a player or let them go before the market adjusts.

Putting It All Together

A successful FPL squad in 2026/27 hinges on marrying expected points with smart chip usage and transfer timing. By focusing on players whose projected contributions are higher than their cost, securing a solid bench, and leveraging live data, you can build a team that consistently outperforms the field.

Key takeaways

• Expected points offer a clearer picture of future performance than raw totals.
• DefCon points are capped at 2 per match; defenders with 20 CBIT still earn only 2.
• The 2026/27 BPS tweak removes the outside‑box save metric and adds a big‑chance save bonus.
• Eight chips are available, split into two sets of four, with the first set due before GW19.
• A top‑value player like Erling Haaland delivers 1.65 expected points per £m cost.

FAQ

Q: How do I calculate expected points for a defender? A: Multiply the defender’s expected goals, expected assists, clean‑sheet probability, and BPS bonus probability by their respective point values (4 for goals, 3 for assists, 4 for clean sheets, and 1 for BPS) and sum the results.

Q: Can I use the Triple Captain chip on a defender? A: The chip applies to any player in the squad, but using it on a defender carries higher risk because their expected points are usually lower than a striker or midfielder.

Q: What happens if a player’s price drops after I buy them? A: The price change is reflected after the match. If you own a player and their price drops, you can release them without penalty, but you may lose a transfer if you replace them.

Q: Are the live projected bonus points reliable? A: They are calculated from ongoing match data and give a good indication of the likelihood of a bonus. However, they can still fluctuate as the game progresses.